The Next Big Thing

My 2 biggest winners over the past few years was betting on the iPhone/iPad and the Tesla Model S. So how do you spot the next big thing? Here's what I do. The first thing to remember is that life is not about you. In context of spotting the next big thing, your own opinions and what you personally think of something is almost completely IRRELEVANT. It's not about you, what you think, or if something is good for you. It's about gauging other people's needs and what you can do for them. Remember the goal here is trying to determine what WILL happen based on what you're seeing, so you can position yourself and react to what's coming. You aren't doing a mental exercise to figure out what you think SHOULD happen or what you think is morally right or wrong. You can do that, but it's not going to help you spot the next big trend or opportunity. This is where so many people get it wrong.

When I saw the Tesla Model S for the first time in Newport Beach, CA, I hung out at the store for 2 hours. I was blown away by the car, but I wasn't at the store for 2 hours to worship the car. I sat there to watch how hundreds of PEOPLE there REACT to this car. What did the people who could afford this car (obvious who they are…like everyone in Newport Beach) think of it? One of the naysayers was that "it's too expensive" for Tesla to sell very many of them. I knew that was wrong because I just saw dozens of people in a single hour, in one store who could afford it.

It's the same thing with the iPad. I bought it the day it came out in 2010, then spent the next 3 months showing it off to hundreds of random people in Europe. That's how I knew we had a huge winner here. It wasn't because I thought this was an awesome, cool gadget (I did), but it was from how so many people react when they see it. When there are hoards of people camping out in front of Apple stores worldwide and selling their kidneys to buy the latest iGadget, there is something there. You may think they're just psychotic and I would agree with you. But dismissing it as nothing more than a bunch of psycho fanboys is missing an opportunity and the larger picture of what is going on in the world.

As we look towards the future of the "next big thing" for growth and opportunity, those are some of the things to look for…